As we enter the final quarter of 2024, the Florida real estate market shows signs of stabilizing after a multi-year post-pandemic surge. While the national economy remains robust, housing activity is slowing in key markets. In this article, we’ll explore recent economic and housing data for Florida and its primary metros, including Orlando and Tampa, along with insights on what these shifts mean for buyers, sellers, and investors.

National Economic and Housing Trends

The U.S. economy continued its steady pace in Q3, with GDP growth estimated at over 2.5% after an upward revision to 3% in Q2​. Inflation has moderated to levels close to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, but labor market concerns persist. The Fed responded to weakening job creation by reducing interest rates by 50 basis points in September 2024.

Despite this economic resilience, the housing market faces challenges. September existing home sales hit a low, with an annualized rate of 3.84 million, marking 37 consecutive months of year-over-year declines​. Although the national median home price rose 3% to $404,500, affordability is being eroded by rising home insurance costs and relatively high mortgage rates. Inventory, however, is improving, with a 4.3-month supply up from 3.3 months a year prior, giving buyers more choices.

For a closer look at national real estate trends, you can read this National Association of Realtors report.

Florida’s Housing Market in Q3 2024

In Florida, home prices remained stable overall, though key metrics suggest that the market is cooling:

• Single-Family Homes: The median price of single-family homes (SFH) in Florida held steady at $414,990 in Q3. Inventory increased significantly, with active listings up 39.6% year-over-year​.

• Townhomes and Condos: Condo and townhome prices dropped by 2% to $314,000. Listings surged by over 65% compared to last year, now representing 7.4 months of inventory—a major increase that signals a shift from the intense seller’s market of recent years.

Sales volume declined across property types, with SFH sales down 2.6% and condo/townhome sales down 12.3%. This trend, combined with longer times to contract, indicates a cooling in Florida’s real estate demand. Median time to contract rose to 42 days for SFHs and 57 days for condos and townhomes, compared to last year’s 27 and 31 days, respectively.

For more detailed Florida real estate insights, visit the Florida Realtors market data page.

Market Spotlight: Orlando

Orlando’s housing market reflects both the resilience and cooling seen across Florida:

• Price Trends: SFH prices remain high—nearly 50% above pre-COVID levels. Townhomes and condos have also sustained strong pricing, with median prices close to all-time highs.

• Inventory Levels: Active listings in Orlando are at a 10-year peak, with over 11,000 SFHs and 4,000 condos on the market​. The days-on-market metric has risen to 32 for SFHs and 37 for condos, a stark contrast to the rapid six-day median in 2022.

These shifts point toward a more balanced market where buyers have greater leverage, but prices still reflect Orlando’s popularity as a major hub in Florida.

Market Spotlight: Tampa

The Tampa market also shows signs of easing demand:

• Price Adjustments: Tampa’s SFH median price declined slightly to $413,990, down 0.2% from last year, and condos saw a 4.6% price drop to $291,000​.

• Inventory and Sales Trends: Tampa’s inventory remains tighter than other markets, especially in SFHs, and sales volumes are well below both post-pandemic and pre-pandemic levels. Despite these trends, Tampa’s SFH properties have the region’s shortest median time to contract, at 28 days, indicating that demand is still relatively strong compared to other Florida metros.

Other Regional Markets in Florida

In Florida’s smaller metro areas, SFH prices dipped by 2.4% year-over-year, a larger decline compared to the state’s overall market. Multifamily properties also saw a significant price drop of nearly 5%​.

This softening is accompanied by a rise in inventory: SFH inventories reached 4.8 months, the highest Q3 figure in over a decade. For multifamily units, inventory has nearly doubled from pre-COVID levels, suggesting that Florida’s smaller markets are also shifting toward more balance.

What’s Driving These Changes?

Several factors are influencing Florida’s shifting market dynamics:

1. Interest Rates and Mortgage Costs: Although interest rates are down from peak levels earlier this year, they remain high enough to deter new buyers from entering the market.

2. Hurricane Recovery and Housing Supply: Hurricanes Helene and Milton caused billions in damage, creating demand for replacement housing but also placing upward pressure on labor and material costs, which could slow new home builds.

3. Election Uncertainty: With a presidential election on the horizon, many potential buyers are choosing to wait and see if economic and housing policies shift, which could impact home prices and interest rates.

Looking Ahead: Opportunities and Cautions for 2024

The Florida real estate market is undergoing a transition toward stability, but elevated mortgage rates, increasing inventory, and shifting buyer preferences are all indicators of a return to a more balanced, buyer-friendly market.

For potential buyers, this might mean greater negotiating power as more homes become available. Sellers may need to adjust pricing expectations and prepare for longer listing times. Investors should note that multifamily and rental markets, previously highly profitable, are now facing challenges like high cap rates, rising vacancies, and market saturation in several areas​.

The rest of 2024 may see moderate price adjustments as Florida’s real estate market adapts to these new economic realities. For the latest in Florida real estate data, explore the Stellar MLS market stats page.